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Episode 1438: One and Done
Date October 3, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss the AL and NL wild card games (touching on Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Nick Anderson, Oliver Drake, Yandy Díaz, Avisaíl García, Josh Hader, Trent Grisham, and others), bid farewell to the Brewers and A’s, and analyze the Rays’ and Nationals’ division series prospects, then answer listener emails about the the Rays’ and Yankees’ long-term outlooks and how the regular season would work without playoffs, plus a Stat Blast about the Twins and WAR from foreign-born players and a postscript on Scooter Gennett and a promised home run. Topics * NL Wild Card Game * Preparing pitchers for postseason situations * Nationals' bullpen struggles and using starters in relief * Trent Grisham's error * Dave Martinez's pinch hitter decisions * AL Wild Card Game * Jurickson Profar's throws * Rays reliever depth * Reverse split relievers * Rays-Astros preview * WAR by foreign players * Long term outlooks for the Rays and Yankees * Team building in baseball without playoffs * Firing Mickey Callaway Intro Son Volt, "Wild Side" Outro Scooter Gennett interview clip Mattiel, "Long Division" Email Questions * Ed: "By my count, The Twins this year have almost twice as much Baseball-reference WAR contributed by foreign-born players (29.3) as by American-born players (19.4). Is this a record, or anything close?" * Anthony: "For the sake of this question, let's assume that it's Thursday morning, and the Rays have advanced to the ALDS. Including current roster, farm system, and built in financial advantages, which team do you think has a higher expected number of World Series wins in the next five years, the Yankees or the Rays? The Yankees obviously have way more money, have seemed like the next big thing for two years now, and won more games this year, but the Rays have the best farm system and might have actually played better than the Yankees this year, at least according to base runs. The Rays also get to play the Astros in a five game series this year, which I think is a slight advantage to their 2019 odds." * Andy: "How do you think it would change the general culture of team building if there were no playoffs or championship to aspire to? Let's say the regular season was all there is, and the goal was just to be as entertaining as possible. Would front offices still undergo massive rebuilds in the hopes of sustaining a winning record, or would they just sign some good players and hope for the best because there's no specific goal in mind, other than having fun playing baseball and putting on a show for the fans? Would you see teams invest primarily in skill sets which are more exciting even if they don't necessarily contribute to winning, like stolen bases, contact hitters, defensive athleticism, etc? There could still be personal awards like MVPs, Cy Youngs and batting titles to keep players trying hard, but fewer reasons for team stress and fear of seasonal failure. Could fans stay invested in a product like this over a full season?" Stat Blast * Based off Ed's question, Ben examines teams with large discrepancies between WAR by foreign and domestic born players. * The 2019 Twins do have the greatest difference between foreign and American-born player WAR. * The American born players on the 2001 Montreal Expos were cumulatively worth -9 WAR. * In Episode 1439 Ben updated the Stat Blast to note that players born in Puerto Rico were incorrectly included in the internationally born player WAR totals. Notes * Sam thinks that having an effective bullpen is the 'secret sauce' to success in the playoffs. He clarifies that this does not necessarily mean having the best bullpen. * The 1994 and 1995 Braves had the highest tOPS+ when comparing the ERA of the rotation and the bullpen. The 2019 Nationals have the third highest. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1438: One and Done * Early '09 Draft Returns by Marc Hulet * "We are not fixers." Jurickson Profar is getting better at shortstop. Why? by Levi Weaver * Stevie Wilkerson catch * How Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves' Young Stars Saved an Endangered Franchise by Ben Lindbergh Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes